๐ #SOL Glassnode: liquidity can be assessed using several metrics, including the realized gain-to-loss ratio (30D-SMA).
For Solana, this ratio has held below 1 since mid-November, meaning that realized losses now exceed realized gains. This indicates that liquidity has declined to levels characteristic of deep bear markets.
For Solana, this ratio has held below 1 since mid-November, meaning that realized losses now exceed realized gains. This indicates that liquidity has declined to levels characteristic of deep bear markets.
๐บ๐ธ๐ #macro CQ: The current macro snapshot indicates a stable RISK-ON environment: a normalized score of +2.71 signals a moderately supportive setup, where rates, the dollar, and volatility create a tailwind for risk assets. There are no signs of overheating, but no excessive euphoria either.
๐โโ๐ #ASTER Aster: The platform now has a zero commission policy for equity futures contracts
๐๐ #BTC CQ: Due to the Coinbase migration, the measured STH supply is now around ~5.4M BTC. A non-trivial chunk of that belongs to corporate treasuries and ETFs, while the rest is held by the real-economy investors who are effectively providing ongoing demand on the market.
๐บ๐ธ๐ Crypto #ETF Flows Today:
Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +445 $BTC (+$40.87M)
7D NetFlow: -1,992 BTC (-$182.9M)
Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +35,347 $ETH (+$117.71M)
7D NetFlow: +56,619 ETH (+$188.54M)
Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +74,573 $SOL (+$10.23M)
7D NetFlow: +365,333 SOL (+$50.42M)
Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +445 $BTC (+$40.87M)
7D NetFlow: -1,992 BTC (-$182.9M)
Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +35,347 $ETH (+$117.71M)
7D NetFlow: +56,619 ETH (+$188.54M)
Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +74,573 $SOL (+$10.23M)
7D NetFlow: +365,333 SOL (+$50.42M)
โค2
๐ฎ๐บ๐ธ #macro Kalshi odds show a 97% chance of a 25 bps cut today, but the real risk is the Fedโs 2026 outlook.
September projections signaled only one cut next year and a 3.4% year-end rate. Analysts expect guidance to turn neutral to hawkish as the Fed stays on hold into early 2026, potentially pressuring equities.
Powell is likely to emphasize that further cuts require weaker inflation or higher unemployment. With his term ending in May, todayโs decision and press conference will be closely watched.
The FOMC rate decision will be announced in 30 minutes โฐ
September projections signaled only one cut next year and a 3.4% year-end rate. Analysts expect guidance to turn neutral to hawkish as the Fed stays on hold into early 2026, potentially pressuring equities.
Powell is likely to emphasize that further cuts require weaker inflation or higher unemployment. With his term ending in May, todayโs decision and press conference will be closely watched.
The FOMC rate decision will be announced in 30 minutes โฐ
๐บ๐ธ๐ #macro Traders now see the Fed Funds rate at 3.1% at the end of 2026 and estimate the probability of a pause at the January meeting at 78%.
๐บ๐ธ๐ #macro #FOMC Powell:
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
- Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
- Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
- Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
- Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.
๐ณ #BTC Whales continue to add BTC while retail buying pressure is at yearly lows.
๐บ๐ธ๐ #macro James Lavish says the US Treasury is pushing for rate cuts because with so much government debt in short-term T-bills, every 25bp cut reduces annual interest costs by about $25 billion.
๐๐ Glassnode: Few new entrants to the crypto ecosystem. Weโre currently in a period of sustained disinterest, especially in altcoins. During the recent sell-off, #BTC saw a surge in new activity as buyers stepped in, while altcoins drew far less attention from new investors.
On an absolute level, even though altcoin interest is slowly climbing over multiple years, we are not currently in a high-interest environment like that seen in late 2023/early 2024 or late 2024/early 2025. This is what is needed to trigger any semblance of an alt season.
On an absolute level, even though altcoin interest is slowly climbing over multiple years, we are not currently in a high-interest environment like that seen in late 2023/early 2024 or late 2024/early 2025. This is what is needed to trigger any semblance of an alt season.
