Media
Global Wealth Report 2025: Wealth growth accelerated in 2024 | UBS Global
In a year marked by shifting economic tides, the world’s wealth landscape continued to evolve. The 2025 edition of the UBS Global Wealth Report reveals not only a 4.6% rise in global wealth but also offers deeper insights into who holds that wealth and how…
The number of USD millionaires rose 1.2% in 2024, an increase of more than 684,000 people compared to the previous year, with the US adding over 379,000 new millionaires. That’s more than 1,000 a day.
Источник - UBS Global Wealth Report 2025.
Там масса интересного.
#factoftheday
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Чего я опасаюсь, так этого того что Трамп сделает глупость лишь бы опровергнуть TACO.
Недавно, на пресс-конференции журналистка спросила его об этом и он взбесился.
Срочно нужно новое сокращение. Не надо дразнить нарцисса.
#AmericanImperialism
Недавно, на пресс-конференции журналистка спросила его об этом и он взбесился.
Срочно нужно новое сокращение. Не надо дразнить нарцисса.
#AmericanImperialism
👍1
FM: Он же мусульманин !
RH: И?
FM: Теперь он своих будет покрывать, и они вообще обнаглеют!
RH: Помнишь, когда Обама избрался, то же самое говорили про чёрных?
FM: Помню.
RH: И как с результатами?
FM: (выдерживает паузу), сейчас скидка на ту сумочку, что я тебе показывала...
Fear Monger and Rational Head in every household near you.
#twotypesofpeople
RH: И?
FM: Теперь он своих будет покрывать, и они вообще обнаглеют!
RH: Помнишь, когда Обама избрался, то же самое говорили про чёрных?
FM: Помню.
RH: И как с результатами?
FM: (выдерживает паузу), сейчас скидка на ту сумочку, что я тебе показывала...
Fear Monger and Rational Head in every household near you.
#twotypesofpeople
😁3
Очень веселая новость. Имитатор, опираясь на созданный AI голос Марко Рубио связывался с высокопоставленными сотрудниками в госдепе и иностранными дипломатами. Любопытно, как на этих международных каналах связи настроены механизмы аутентификации. А то ведь больших дров наломать можно.
#BraveNewWorld
#BraveNewWorld
Ground News
AI-Powered Rubio Impersonator Makes Calls to Foreign Ministers, Other Top Officials: Report
Someone using artificial intelligence to impersonate Secretary of State Marco Rubio contacted at least five people, including three foreign ministers, a US governor, and a member of Congress, “with the goal of gaining access to information or accounts,” a…
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Stablecoins (SCs). The Good. Part 1.
The crypto tokens whose value is pegged to $1 and backed by real assets. Algorithmic ones were proven to be a joke, so I'll pretend they don't exist.
The utility for SCs in the U.S. and developed economies is muted. Many consumers use credit cards, which essentially provide a 1-2% discount on purchases. A well-developed and generally trusted banking system with a relatively low inflation environment makes switching to alternative payment methods a tall order. The proliferation of Zelle and Venmo further cemented the dominance of incumbents. Using SCs for international transfers is cheap and fast; however, convertibility to USD is still expensive and subject to time delays. For transactions exceeding $5K, a wire transfer is more efficient.
The situation is drastically different internationally. Many jurisdictions are known for weak banking systems, high inflation, and distrust of local currencies. Argentina, Egypt, Turkey, etc. These are relatively sizeable countries with enormous growth potential for SC adoption in domestic and international payments. If that is to materialize, it'll have peculiar consequences.
There are two major SC issuers: Tether and Circle. Staying behind USDT and USDC, respectively. Structurally, both companies operate in the same paradigm. They create SCs into existence, sell them into the market, and use the proceeds to buy reserve assets. An issuer is managing for $1 peg to remain under any market conditions, thus providing a robust medium of exchange. For this service, an issuer collects interest from the money kept in reserves. For practical reasons, the vast majority of the reserves are in U.S. Treasuries. The most trusted and most liquid asset class worldwide. As of July 2025, the four largest USD SC issuers together hold approximately $182.4 billion in U.S. Treasury securities. This places them in 16th place amongst the top global holders of U.S. debt, between Norway and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the U.S. Treasuries market (total marketable securities outstanding) is approximately $28 trillion. The growth of the reserves over the past 5 years has been remarkable, underscoring the explosive nature of adoption.
Year | Estimated Reserves (Market Cap, USD bn) | Year-on-Year Growth (%)
2020 | 6 | —
2021 | 27 | +350%
2022 | 81 | +200%
2023 | 126 | +56%
2024 | 153 | +21%
2025 | 200-247 | +31% (approx.)
As the global market needs more and more SCs, the demand for Treasuries will continue to grow. This is a simple mathematical relationship. Those salivating over the demise of the USD as global reserve currency are now at risk of developing a gastric ulcer. To get more nuanced, it's mostly a demand for short-dated securities. They're more liquid than longer-dated ones and are less sensitive to interest rate risk. This means a higher demand for T-Bills relative to notes and bonds. Of course, the Treasury controls the issuance of debt across different maturities, but this is a new and growing factor that didn't exist a few years ago. Ceteris paribus, it could lead to higher long-term rates than otherwise would've been.
Part 2 👇
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
The crypto tokens whose value is pegged to $1 and backed by real assets. Algorithmic ones were proven to be a joke, so I'll pretend they don't exist.
The utility for SCs in the U.S. and developed economies is muted. Many consumers use credit cards, which essentially provide a 1-2% discount on purchases. A well-developed and generally trusted banking system with a relatively low inflation environment makes switching to alternative payment methods a tall order. The proliferation of Zelle and Venmo further cemented the dominance of incumbents. Using SCs for international transfers is cheap and fast; however, convertibility to USD is still expensive and subject to time delays. For transactions exceeding $5K, a wire transfer is more efficient.
The situation is drastically different internationally. Many jurisdictions are known for weak banking systems, high inflation, and distrust of local currencies. Argentina, Egypt, Turkey, etc. These are relatively sizeable countries with enormous growth potential for SC adoption in domestic and international payments. If that is to materialize, it'll have peculiar consequences.
There are two major SC issuers: Tether and Circle. Staying behind USDT and USDC, respectively. Structurally, both companies operate in the same paradigm. They create SCs into existence, sell them into the market, and use the proceeds to buy reserve assets. An issuer is managing for $1 peg to remain under any market conditions, thus providing a robust medium of exchange. For this service, an issuer collects interest from the money kept in reserves. For practical reasons, the vast majority of the reserves are in U.S. Treasuries. The most trusted and most liquid asset class worldwide. As of July 2025, the four largest USD SC issuers together hold approximately $182.4 billion in U.S. Treasury securities. This places them in 16th place amongst the top global holders of U.S. debt, between Norway and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the U.S. Treasuries market (total marketable securities outstanding) is approximately $28 trillion. The growth of the reserves over the past 5 years has been remarkable, underscoring the explosive nature of adoption.
Year | Estimated Reserves (Market Cap, USD bn) | Year-on-Year Growth (%)
2020 | 6 | —
2021 | 27 | +350%
2022 | 81 | +200%
2023 | 126 | +56%
2024 | 153 | +21%
2025 | 200-247 | +31% (approx.)
As the global market needs more and more SCs, the demand for Treasuries will continue to grow. This is a simple mathematical relationship. Those salivating over the demise of the USD as global reserve currency are now at risk of developing a gastric ulcer. To get more nuanced, it's mostly a demand for short-dated securities. They're more liquid than longer-dated ones and are less sensitive to interest rate risk. This means a higher demand for T-Bills relative to notes and bonds. Of course, the Treasury controls the issuance of debt across different maturities, but this is a new and growing factor that didn't exist a few years ago. Ceteris paribus, it could lead to higher long-term rates than otherwise would've been.
Part 2 👇
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
Telegram
Random Thoughts
О дивный новый мир криптовалют и деривативов к ним. Типичные тезисы пропонентов это кабальность государственных регуляций, зло фиатных денег, опасность централизованных систем, ну и т.д. Свобода выбора и личная ответственность прослеживаются в каждом предложении.…
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Stablecoins (SCs). The Good. Part 2. Part 1.
The secondary consequence is a hollowing out of local currencies and debt instruments in favor of U.S.-based counterparts. Reducing the powers of central banks and finance departments. All sorts of middlemen in the remittance and international P2P space will see their margins shrink or be eliminated. On one hand, governments will observe erosion in the tax receipts due to higher difficulty in policing the global stablecoin ecosystem and will try to curtail its use. On the other hand, the legacy payment system punishes businesses with high costs for international transactions. This is a net transfer from growth-oriented export-driven enterprises to a rent-seeking banking sector. Economies with a lack of growth opportunities are fertile ground for revolutions. Governments would have to find the right balance. A material reduction in transaction costs will leave more money in the hands of the remittance receivers. This should further help local economies. In 2025, people worldwide are projected to send around $913 billion as remittances, marking a new record for global remittance flows.
Thirdly, incumbents will be forced to adopt and incorporate SCs in their offerings. This has the potential to lower transaction costs in developed markets. When this occurs, the result is always more transactions. Speed is another factor where SCs saw a major improvement. We're talking 1-2 seconds delay. How many business ideas were deemed uneconomical given high credit card fees? Imagine selling something for a few cents with almost zero cost and coins hitting your valet instantaneously.
Of course, there are risks, and the ecosystem hasn't been battle-tested yet. This will require another post.
Despite the decentralized technology, the growing adoption of SCs will result in more globalization under the U.S financial umbrella, further cementing its hegemony.
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
The secondary consequence is a hollowing out of local currencies and debt instruments in favor of U.S.-based counterparts. Reducing the powers of central banks and finance departments. All sorts of middlemen in the remittance and international P2P space will see their margins shrink or be eliminated. On one hand, governments will observe erosion in the tax receipts due to higher difficulty in policing the global stablecoin ecosystem and will try to curtail its use. On the other hand, the legacy payment system punishes businesses with high costs for international transactions. This is a net transfer from growth-oriented export-driven enterprises to a rent-seeking banking sector. Economies with a lack of growth opportunities are fertile ground for revolutions. Governments would have to find the right balance. A material reduction in transaction costs will leave more money in the hands of the remittance receivers. This should further help local economies. In 2025, people worldwide are projected to send around $913 billion as remittances, marking a new record for global remittance flows.
Thirdly, incumbents will be forced to adopt and incorporate SCs in their offerings. This has the potential to lower transaction costs in developed markets. When this occurs, the result is always more transactions. Speed is another factor where SCs saw a major improvement. We're talking 1-2 seconds delay. How many business ideas were deemed uneconomical given high credit card fees? Imagine selling something for a few cents with almost zero cost and coins hitting your valet instantaneously.
Of course, there are risks, and the ecosystem hasn't been battle-tested yet. This will require another post.
Despite the decentralized technology, the growing adoption of SCs will result in more globalization under the U.S financial umbrella, further cementing its hegemony.
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
Telegram
Random Thoughts
Stablecoins (SCs). The Good. Part 1.
The crypto tokens whose value is pegged to $1 and backed by real assets. Algorithmic ones were proven to be a joke, so I'll pretend they don't exist.
The utility for SCs in the U.S. and developed economies is muted.…
The crypto tokens whose value is pegged to $1 and backed by real assets. Algorithmic ones were proven to be a joke, so I'll pretend they don't exist.
The utility for SCs in the U.S. and developed economies is muted.…
Stablecoins (SCs). The Bad. Part 1. You can read about the good parts here.
There are two main classes of issues with SCs. Economic and operational. Let's evaluate those through the lens of a U.S.-based user. These arguments won't equally apply in high-inflation, weak banking sector jurisdictions. That's why SCs' adoption will probably grow there.
In the U.S., we have money market funds. Investment vehicles with super safe assets, structured to deliver $1 NAV share price. Post GFC, they're de facto backstopped by the FED. The current yield is 4-4.5%. Moving cash in and out takes a few clicks. Many such funds operate under the covers of regular checking accounts. Why would anyone give up that yield to hold liquidity in SCs for free? The way to abstractly think about any SC is a 0% money market account.
The second economic issue is fragmentation. The issuance of SCs is identical to the banking landscape in the U.S. before the establishment of the Federal Reserve. Banks circulated their banknotes, backed by gold, with various rates of adoptability and discounting across the country. This created all sorts of problems and was a net negative for the economy. SCs are the digital equivalent of banknotes from the 19th century. Each announcement of yet another SC further increments this problem. Monetary fragmentation reduces the value of exchange between producers and consumers, while benefiting the rent-seeking middleman. It has a reverse networking effect. The introduction of the common European currency was a recent example of successfully eliminating this problem.
Moving on. Operationally, the single most important risk is counterparty risk. There is a for-profit entity behind each SC. What happens if such an enterprise goes bust? We don't know, but it's not hard to imagine. Remember the FTX fiasco? This is where further details matter. Namely, where an issuer is domiciled. The legal environment, bankruptcy laws, and other regulations applicable in that jurisdiction.
Tether—the issuer of the USDT is registered in the British Virgin Islands. For a long time, it didn't even bother to present audited financial statements. It eventually did so, but the report wasn't even worth the paper it was printed on. Circle Internet Group, Inc. (commonly known as Circle), an issuer behind USDC, is registered and headquartered in New York City. It recently went public and trades under the ticker CRCL. As a U.S.-based public company, it is subject to much stricter regulatory requirements. Its financial statements adhere to U.S. standards and are audited by a Big Four accounting firm. Its assets are with a custodian. Without a doubt, the level of trustworthiness is significantly higher vis-à-vis Tether. Yet, Circle is not a bank. It doesn't have access to the FED, and cannot tap its facilities in the case of a crisis. A bank could step in to bridge that gap in the case of a liquidity situation. No one will come to the rescue if there is fraud.
Additionally, SC issuers, just like banks, carry interest rate and duration risks. A volatile up move in interest rates (price of securities goes down) may expose inadequate reserves backing. If an issuer mismanages the duration of the reserves by overweighting longer-dated securities, it opens itself up to potential undercapitalization. Under extreme market conditions, these things could come to a head and trigger a run. That's how SVB failed in March 2023.
Part 2 👇🏻
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
There are two main classes of issues with SCs. Economic and operational. Let's evaluate those through the lens of a U.S.-based user. These arguments won't equally apply in high-inflation, weak banking sector jurisdictions. That's why SCs' adoption will probably grow there.
In the U.S., we have money market funds. Investment vehicles with super safe assets, structured to deliver $1 NAV share price. Post GFC, they're de facto backstopped by the FED. The current yield is 4-4.5%. Moving cash in and out takes a few clicks. Many such funds operate under the covers of regular checking accounts. Why would anyone give up that yield to hold liquidity in SCs for free? The way to abstractly think about any SC is a 0% money market account.
The second economic issue is fragmentation. The issuance of SCs is identical to the banking landscape in the U.S. before the establishment of the Federal Reserve. Banks circulated their banknotes, backed by gold, with various rates of adoptability and discounting across the country. This created all sorts of problems and was a net negative for the economy. SCs are the digital equivalent of banknotes from the 19th century. Each announcement of yet another SC further increments this problem. Monetary fragmentation reduces the value of exchange between producers and consumers, while benefiting the rent-seeking middleman. It has a reverse networking effect. The introduction of the common European currency was a recent example of successfully eliminating this problem.
Moving on. Operationally, the single most important risk is counterparty risk. There is a for-profit entity behind each SC. What happens if such an enterprise goes bust? We don't know, but it's not hard to imagine. Remember the FTX fiasco? This is where further details matter. Namely, where an issuer is domiciled. The legal environment, bankruptcy laws, and other regulations applicable in that jurisdiction.
Tether—the issuer of the USDT is registered in the British Virgin Islands. For a long time, it didn't even bother to present audited financial statements. It eventually did so, but the report wasn't even worth the paper it was printed on. Circle Internet Group, Inc. (commonly known as Circle), an issuer behind USDC, is registered and headquartered in New York City. It recently went public and trades under the ticker CRCL. As a U.S.-based public company, it is subject to much stricter regulatory requirements. Its financial statements adhere to U.S. standards and are audited by a Big Four accounting firm. Its assets are with a custodian. Without a doubt, the level of trustworthiness is significantly higher vis-à-vis Tether. Yet, Circle is not a bank. It doesn't have access to the FED, and cannot tap its facilities in the case of a crisis. A bank could step in to bridge that gap in the case of a liquidity situation. No one will come to the rescue if there is fraud.
Additionally, SC issuers, just like banks, carry interest rate and duration risks. A volatile up move in interest rates (price of securities goes down) may expose inadequate reserves backing. If an issuer mismanages the duration of the reserves by overweighting longer-dated securities, it opens itself up to potential undercapitalization. Under extreme market conditions, these things could come to a head and trigger a run. That's how SVB failed in March 2023.
Part 2 👇🏻
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
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Stablecoins (SCs). The Bad. Part 2. Part 1.
The other not-so-obvious, but essential piece of the puzzle is the networks over which SCs are exchanged. The blockchains. If SCs are analogous to banknotes, then networks are mimicking systems like SWIFT, except they're not centrally operated and owned. No one is responsible. Ethereum, Tron, and Solana, just to name a few. Although, to be more technical, it's a blockchain with a particular standard. For example, Ethereum (ERC-20) refers to a widely used technical standard for creating fungible tokens, which are interchangeable on the Ethereum blockchain. This implies the possibility of other standards in the future. Each network poses unique rules, fees, processing speeds, and risks. If you send tokens and they don't arrive, good luck squaring that circle.
Legacy payment systems can reverse transactions, handle fraud, and generally provide safety guardrails. SCs are just tokens without these capabilities. Of course, a company may utilize the SC ecosystem and provide these features. Visa and Mastercard have already announced plans for their respective SCs. Welcome to market fragmentation in the making.
Despite what the bulls are saying, I see SCs remain as toys in the U.S.
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
The other not-so-obvious, but essential piece of the puzzle is the networks over which SCs are exchanged. The blockchains. If SCs are analogous to banknotes, then networks are mimicking systems like SWIFT, except they're not centrally operated and owned. No one is responsible. Ethereum, Tron, and Solana, just to name a few. Although, to be more technical, it's a blockchain with a particular standard. For example, Ethereum (ERC-20) refers to a widely used technical standard for creating fungible tokens, which are interchangeable on the Ethereum blockchain. This implies the possibility of other standards in the future. Each network poses unique rules, fees, processing speeds, and risks. If you send tokens and they don't arrive, good luck squaring that circle.
Legacy payment systems can reverse transactions, handle fraud, and generally provide safety guardrails. SCs are just tokens without these capabilities. Of course, a company may utilize the SC ecosystem and provide these features. Visa and Mastercard have already announced plans for their respective SCs. Welcome to market fragmentation in the making.
Despite what the bulls are saying, I see SCs remain as toys in the U.S.
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
Telegram
Random Thoughts
Stablecoins (SCs). The Good. Part 1.
The crypto tokens whose value is pegged to $1 and backed by real assets. Algorithmic ones were proven to be a joke, so I'll pretend they don't exist.
The utility for SCs in the U.S. and developed economies is muted.…
The crypto tokens whose value is pegged to $1 and backed by real assets. Algorithmic ones were proven to be a joke, so I'll pretend they don't exist.
The utility for SCs in the U.S. and developed economies is muted.…
👍1
Why you should stick with the simplest insurance products, aka Term Life. Case in point: Acceleration of Death Benefit Policy from MetLife.
This "nifty" feature has a costly side effect. The typical expectation is that if premiums are stopped, the policy is nullified. However, some are structured so the coverage continuation benefit, aka no-lapse guarantee, has already been achieved, and no further payments are necessary. The premiums are optional and only needed to maintain the aforementioned gimmick. A policy with a face value of $120K has a cash value of $4.3K, while the monthly premium is $89. The owner is paying $1,068 a year for the privilege to borrow or have an advance of $4.3K. To be fair, that amount will slowly grow. At any rate, this is a completely idiotic proposition for the owner.
Regulations mandate insurance companies to issue an annual statement to the policy owner, reporting on the policy's financials. It'll spell out in plain sight different scenarios about the policy. In normal font, on page 2. One needs to be diligent and understand the lingo. I'd bet that most people don't. This author stumbled upon this by sheer accident.
Life insurance is to help beneficiaries when a catastrophic event occurs, not to borrow against, nor to be an investment vehicle. There are numerous simpler and more cost-effective options elsewhere. These complexities will make a salesperson jump for joy at your expense.
#finance
An acceleration of death benefit (also called an accelerated death benefit or living benefit) is a feature often included in or added to life insurance policies. It allows the policyholder to receive a portion of their policy’s death benefit in advance if they are diagnosed with a terminal illness or, in some cases, a severe chronic condition.
This "nifty" feature has a costly side effect. The typical expectation is that if premiums are stopped, the policy is nullified. However, some are structured so the coverage continuation benefit, aka no-lapse guarantee, has already been achieved, and no further payments are necessary. The premiums are optional and only needed to maintain the aforementioned gimmick. A policy with a face value of $120K has a cash value of $4.3K, while the monthly premium is $89. The owner is paying $1,068 a year for the privilege to borrow or have an advance of $4.3K. To be fair, that amount will slowly grow. At any rate, this is a completely idiotic proposition for the owner.
Regulations mandate insurance companies to issue an annual statement to the policy owner, reporting on the policy's financials. It'll spell out in plain sight different scenarios about the policy. In normal font, on page 2. One needs to be diligent and understand the lingo. I'd bet that most people don't. This author stumbled upon this by sheer accident.
Life insurance is to help beneficiaries when a catastrophic event occurs, not to borrow against, nor to be an investment vehicle. There are numerous simpler and more cost-effective options elsewhere. These complexities will make a salesperson jump for joy at your expense.
#finance
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Greed has been and remains the force underpinning all financial manias. Bitcoin is no exception. Yet, at least three aspects distinguish it from the Southern Sea bubble, the Dot-com, Japan's real estate craze, or any other episode. The combined effect of all these factors contributed to a meteoric rise of BTC, and a long-lasting one at that.
Early adopters drank the Kool-Aid of the anti-fiat monetary system. Many folks were unhappy with Uncle Sam's handling of the GFC. Anarcho-capitalistic and libertarian ideas resonate well with the idealistic and tech-savvy twenty-year-olds. They thought that a distributed, tokenized, and anonymous form of money, outside of government control, would be adopted worldwide. Adopted it was. The hands-free expectation was proven to be a mirage. Nevertheless, this ideological force greatly contributed to the popularization during the early years. A subculture either goes mainstream or dies.
The global nature of Bitcoin is another unique characteristic. In the past, financial bubbles were strictly a local affair. They sprang up, matured, and collapsed in a specific jurisdiction. Yes, foreign investors participated, but it required physical access to a marketplace, severely restricting those involved. Bitcoin has no such limitations. Furthermore, in many countries, the banking sector and local currency enjoy little love from locals. A lack of investment opportunities (real estate is prohibitively expensive) makes BTC speculation the only game in town. All that one needs is a mobile phone and some funding. This easily describes 3/4 of the World's population. The sheer quantity of believers, get-rich-quick speculators, and other FOMOers is a serious force keeping the spirit alive.
A math formula restricts the maximum number of tokens that could be created. This is something no other asset had prior. More gold could be dug from the ground. Shares created. Bonds issued. Real estate built. Money lent into existence. Pokémon cards could be printed. Bitcoin is different. A hard limit on the supply with the increased popularity is destined to push the price higher in a self-reinforcing loop. Needless to say that existing holders and operators are strongly incentivized to spread the religion for a very concrete financial gain. Just ask Michael Saylor. And yet, sooner or later, the supply of new cult members will dwindle. The inevitable reality of the greater fool schemes is that at some point, there are no more fools, or they have no money.
For the past fifteen years, there has been no shortage of visionaries explaining how blockchain technology would revolutionize all aspects of life. Possibilities were endless. By and large, that meant and was interpreted as the adoption of BTC and its younger sibling, Ether. The reality has proven to be a bit different. The most widespread utility of BTC is a criminal one. Followed by all forms of speculation and fee extraction. It's a pure pyramid scheme where newcomers pay those who came before them. Why would an entrepreneur with a great idea build a business on top of BTC? Doing so will inevitably transfer created value from such an enterprise to legacy BTC holders. Using dollars doesn't impose this tax. Systems offering no real economic value (doesn't mean legal) will die or remain highly marginalized.
No amount of fraud, collapses, price volatility, and unfulfilled promises was able to put a dent in the collective minds of the HODLers. But sooner or later, this cult will take an honorary stand in the Bubbles Hall of Fame.
#BraveNewWorld #finance #ЖадностьПорождаетБедность
July 2025
Early adopters drank the Kool-Aid of the anti-fiat monetary system. Many folks were unhappy with Uncle Sam's handling of the GFC. Anarcho-capitalistic and libertarian ideas resonate well with the idealistic and tech-savvy twenty-year-olds. They thought that a distributed, tokenized, and anonymous form of money, outside of government control, would be adopted worldwide. Adopted it was. The hands-free expectation was proven to be a mirage. Nevertheless, this ideological force greatly contributed to the popularization during the early years. A subculture either goes mainstream or dies.
The global nature of Bitcoin is another unique characteristic. In the past, financial bubbles were strictly a local affair. They sprang up, matured, and collapsed in a specific jurisdiction. Yes, foreign investors participated, but it required physical access to a marketplace, severely restricting those involved. Bitcoin has no such limitations. Furthermore, in many countries, the banking sector and local currency enjoy little love from locals. A lack of investment opportunities (real estate is prohibitively expensive) makes BTC speculation the only game in town. All that one needs is a mobile phone and some funding. This easily describes 3/4 of the World's population. The sheer quantity of believers, get-rich-quick speculators, and other FOMOers is a serious force keeping the spirit alive.
A math formula restricts the maximum number of tokens that could be created. This is something no other asset had prior. More gold could be dug from the ground. Shares created. Bonds issued. Real estate built. Money lent into existence. Pokémon cards could be printed. Bitcoin is different. A hard limit on the supply with the increased popularity is destined to push the price higher in a self-reinforcing loop. Needless to say that existing holders and operators are strongly incentivized to spread the religion for a very concrete financial gain. Just ask Michael Saylor. And yet, sooner or later, the supply of new cult members will dwindle. The inevitable reality of the greater fool schemes is that at some point, there are no more fools, or they have no money.
For the past fifteen years, there has been no shortage of visionaries explaining how blockchain technology would revolutionize all aspects of life. Possibilities were endless. By and large, that meant and was interpreted as the adoption of BTC and its younger sibling, Ether. The reality has proven to be a bit different. The most widespread utility of BTC is a criminal one. Followed by all forms of speculation and fee extraction. It's a pure pyramid scheme where newcomers pay those who came before them. Why would an entrepreneur with a great idea build a business on top of BTC? Doing so will inevitably transfer created value from such an enterprise to legacy BTC holders. Using dollars doesn't impose this tax. Systems offering no real economic value (doesn't mean legal) will die or remain highly marginalized.
No amount of fraud, collapses, price volatility, and unfulfilled promises was able to put a dent in the collective minds of the HODLers. But sooner or later, this cult will take an honorary stand in the Bubbles Hall of Fame.
#BraveNewWorld #finance #ЖадностьПорождаетБедность
July 2025
👍1
Население Нью-Йоркской агломерации (NY Metropolitan Area) – 20млн, ВВП $2.3T. Население РФ – 144Млн, ВВП $2.2T. Равные показатели ВВП достигаются семикратными людскими ресурсами. Территориальные различия: 12,093 км2 против 17,098,246 км2.
#factoftheday
#factoftheday
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Регулярно всплывает тема стратегической важности редкоземельных металлов. За Китаем 70% мировой добычи и 90% обработки. Китай периодически использует своё монопольное положение как инструмент влияния, ограничивая экспорт.
В краткосрочной перспективе это действительно эффективный способ добиться торговых уступок, что Китай наглядно демонстрирует. Но чем больше данный инструмент будет применяться, тем менее значимым он будет на длинной дистанции.
Во-первых, редкоземельные металлы не такие уж и редкие. Их залежи есть во многих странах. Главная проблема – обработка. Чертовски грязное занятие с экологической точки зрения. Именно по этой причине, развитые страны, постепенно отказались от этого. До 2000 года лидером в отрасли были США. Стратегическая важность индустрии и нежелание наделять главного оппонента козырями, постепенно приведут к откату. По сути, Китай добился монополии не потому, что никто не умел, а потому что, никто не хотел. Такое положение радикально отличается от индустрии разработки передовых чипов, где Китай хочет, но не может.
В семидесятых нечто похожее было с нефтью. Страны производители оказались в более выгодном положении. Образовали (формально организация была основана в 1960, но именно в 1970-х стала действительно влиятельной) ОПЕК и воспользовались ситуацией. Был повод. Но очень скоро потребители отреагировали. Экономия в использовании, новые технологии добычи и т.д. Сегодня ОПЕК уже не торт. Производители в США с удовольствием увеличат долю на рынке за счёт картеля.
Используя глобальное монопольное положение, как инструмент давления, приведёт к утрате позиций. Экспортные ограничения подчёркивают ненадёжность Китая как поставщика и вынуждают потребителей искать альтернативы. Благо они есть. Но за диверсификацию придётся доплатить.
#economics #AmericanDynamism
August 2025
В краткосрочной перспективе это действительно эффективный способ добиться торговых уступок, что Китай наглядно демонстрирует. Но чем больше данный инструмент будет применяться, тем менее значимым он будет на длинной дистанции.
Во-первых, редкоземельные металлы не такие уж и редкие. Их залежи есть во многих странах. Главная проблема – обработка. Чертовски грязное занятие с экологической точки зрения. Именно по этой причине, развитые страны, постепенно отказались от этого. До 2000 года лидером в отрасли были США. Стратегическая важность индустрии и нежелание наделять главного оппонента козырями, постепенно приведут к откату. По сути, Китай добился монополии не потому, что никто не умел, а потому что, никто не хотел. Такое положение радикально отличается от индустрии разработки передовых чипов, где Китай хочет, но не может.
В семидесятых нечто похожее было с нефтью. Страны производители оказались в более выгодном положении. Образовали (формально организация была основана в 1960, но именно в 1970-х стала действительно влиятельной) ОПЕК и воспользовались ситуацией. Был повод. Но очень скоро потребители отреагировали. Экономия в использовании, новые технологии добычи и т.д. Сегодня ОПЕК уже не торт. Производители в США с удовольствием увеличат долю на рынке за счёт картеля.
Используя глобальное монопольное положение, как инструмент давления, приведёт к утрате позиций. Экспортные ограничения подчёркивают ненадёжность Китая как поставщика и вынуждают потребителей искать альтернативы. Благо они есть. Но за диверсификацию придётся доплатить.
#economics #AmericanDynamism
August 2025
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