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气候变暖将显著影响粮食产量

2025-06-23 00:06 by 巨龙之夜

根据发表于《自然》的全球作物产量分析,到本世纪末,每变暖 1℃,人均可用粮食每天将减少约121千卡。研究论文作者、美国伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校的 Andrew Hultgren 说,根据目前轨迹,在 3℃ 的变暖情景下,“这相当于每个人都不再用早餐”。Hultgren 和同事收集了世界上六大主粮作物的产量数据。这些作物提供了全球人类所需热量的 2/3 以上。他们发现,对于除水稻外的所有作物,高温会造成巨大的损失,因为水稻在更暖的夜晚生长得更好。根据预测,到本世纪末,全球变暖情况下玉米产量比没有全球变暖的情况下降 12% 或28%,具体下降程度取决于温室气体排放量是适中还是非常高。如果农民不采取措施适应气候变化,那么在本世纪末变暖程度高的情景下,作物损失将增加约1 /3。不过,研究人员指出,即便采取了上述农业适应措施,也不太可能弥补气候变化造成的巨大作物损失。

doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09085-w
中国科学报:气候变暖3℃,每个人都将减少一顿早餐

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气候变暖将显著影响粮食产量

2025-06-23 00:06 by 巨龙之夜

根据发表于《自然》的全球作物产量分析,到本世纪末,每变暖 1℃,人均可用粮食每天将减少约121千卡。研究论文作者、美国伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校的 Andrew Hultgren 说,根据目前轨迹,在 3℃ 的变暖情景下,“这相当于每个人都不再用早餐”。Hultgren 和同事收集了世界上六大主粮作物的产量数据。这些作物提供了全球人类所需热量的 2/3 以上。他们发现,对于除水稻外的所有作物,高温会造成巨大的损失,因为水稻在更暖的夜晚生长得更好。根据预测,到本世纪末,全球变暖情况下玉米产量比没有全球变暖的情况下降 12% 或28%,具体下降程度取决于温室气体排放量是适中还是非常高。如果农民不采取措施适应气候变化,那么在本世纪末变暖程度高的情景下,作物损失将增加约1 /3。不过,研究人员指出,即便采取了上述农业适应措施,也不太可能弥补气候变化造成的巨大作物损失。

doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09085-w
中国科学报:气候变暖3℃,每个人都将减少一顿早餐

#地球

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