ВРЕМЯ ПУТИНА

*Tacticians, Not Strategists*

The Alaska summit should neither be underestimated nor exaggerated.

For Vladimir Putin, and for the Russian political system as a whole, Friday’s meeting with Donald Trump marked a turning point. Three years of decline — of being branded an international pariah and a wanted man — were effectively neutralised by Trump’s handshake on the airport red carpet. The fly-past of American F-22s was a kind of salute. Putin has been restored to the club of world leaders. Russian diplomacy has achieved what once looked impossible: the rehabilitation of Putin’s name, strength and status, and with them the confidence of the regime itself.

Did Russia gain anything tangible? For now, the visible outcome is meagre. No agreements on Aeroflot, space cooperation or Visa. At best, the Kremlin can hope for a pause in new American sanctions. India, returned to Moscow as an energy client by Trump, was presented as consolation.

Diplomats let slip that contacts between embassies will be normalised. There is talk of liberalisation in Moscow, even of a reshuffle in the Kremlin team, with Putin said to be impressed by the tandem of Dmitriev and Belousov working alongside system liberals such as Nabiullina and Siluanov.

But no one in Washington or Europe imagines Trump as a new Roosevelt, nor Alaska as a new Tehran 1943 paving the way to a Yalta. Western elites are not about to conclude a grand bargain with the Kremlin. This was tactics without strategy.

Strategic planning has always been Putin’s weakness: an adept tactician, a mediocre strategist, especially over the long term. Trump even more so: a businessman guided by the logic of buying, selling and pocketing the profit immediately. In that sense, both leaders delivered tactically in Alaska.

Putin made clear that the “special military operation” is no longer merely a tool but the ontological foundation of Russia’s re-formatted political order — a corporate-personalist regime. The war mobilises Russia, sustains the atmosphere of tension, and functions as a multi-purpose mechanism: “military time” with curtailed rights and freedoms; a regulator of elite competition; a brake on access to rents; and a means of redistributing resources and assets, especially from regional business groups. Corporate loyalty is the glue of the system, where the state’s interests always outweigh society’s. Add to that an ideology of revanche — from borders to the resurrection of Stalinist models.

A renunciation of the war is not contemplated. Hopes for liberalisation should be deferred. Even Trump repeated that a ceasefire is not on the table: Russia must negotiate a peace treaty with Ukraine on the basis of “global security principles”. In effect, the end of the war is postponed until the Russian army advances towards Sumy, Kharkiv and Odesa. Putin extracted from Trump a kind of mandate for this — perhaps the summit’s most significant result for Moscow.

What did Trump offer Putin? Little, but of consequence: non-interference in Russia’s domestic affairs, in return for access by American corporations to “choice” Russian projects. Oil interests, such as ExxonMobil’s possible return to Sakhalin. Gas projects, with the likelihood that Nord Stream could pass into American hands to pump Azeri gas into Europe via Ukraine. In Ukraine itself, Americans are eyeing nuclear power and long-term rights to natural resources. Rosneft may open rare-earth projects to US partners; Magadan could follow with promising mining ventures. Observers noted that the delegations never sat down for full-fledged talks.

Contours of an understanding were nonetheless visible — frameworks that may evolve, adjust and expand.

Trump now faces his own tasks:
— To dampen European anger at Putin by effectively exchanging security guarantees for EU loyalty to Washington — a goal Trump is well placed to achieve.
— To divest himself of obligations towards Ukraine, allowing Kyiv and Moscow to discuss a peace format while the front bleeds manpower, a resource especially scarce for the Ukrainians.

www.group-telegram.com/us/putintimes.com/194

5.76K viewsAug 17 at 05:50

*Tacticians, Not Strategists*

The Alaska summit should neither be underestimated nor exaggerated.

For Vladimir Putin, and for the Russian political system as a whole, Friday’s meeting with Donald Trump marked a turning point. Three years of decline — of being branded an international pariah and a wanted man — were effectively neutralised by Trump’s handshake on the airport red carpet. The fly-past of American F-22s was a kind of salute. Putin has been restored to the club of world leaders. Russian diplomacy has achieved what once looked impossible: the rehabilitation of Putin’s name, strength and status, and with them the confidence of the regime itself.

Did Russia gain anything tangible? For now, the visible outcome is meagre. No agreements on Aeroflot, space cooperation or Visa. At best, the Kremlin can hope for a pause in new American sanctions. India, returned to Moscow as an energy client by Trump, was presented as consolation.

Diplomats let slip that contacts between embassies will be normalised. There is talk of liberalisation in Moscow, even of a reshuffle in the Kremlin team, with Putin said to be impressed by the tandem of Dmitriev and Belousov working alongside system liberals such as Nabiullina and Siluanov.

But no one in Washington or Europe imagines Trump as a new Roosevelt, nor Alaska as a new Tehran 1943 paving the way to a Yalta. Western elites are not about to conclude a grand bargain with the Kremlin. This was tactics without strategy.

Strategic planning has always been Putin’s weakness: an adept tactician, a mediocre strategist, especially over the long term. Trump even more so: a businessman guided by the logic of buying, selling and pocketing the profit immediately. In that sense, both leaders delivered tactically in Alaska.

Putin made clear that the “special military operation” is no longer merely a tool but the ontological foundation of Russia’s re-formatted political order — a corporate-personalist regime. The war mobilises Russia, sustains the atmosphere of tension, and functions as a multi-purpose mechanism: “military time” with curtailed rights and freedoms; a regulator of elite competition; a brake on access to rents; and a means of redistributing resources and assets, especially from regional business groups. Corporate loyalty is the glue of the system, where the state’s interests always outweigh society’s. Add to that an ideology of revanche — from borders to the resurrection of Stalinist models.

A renunciation of the war is not contemplated. Hopes for liberalisation should be deferred. Even Trump repeated that a ceasefire is not on the table: Russia must negotiate a peace treaty with Ukraine on the basis of “global security principles”. In effect, the end of the war is postponed until the Russian army advances towards Sumy, Kharkiv and Odesa. Putin extracted from Trump a kind of mandate for this — perhaps the summit’s most significant result for Moscow.

What did Trump offer Putin? Little, but of consequence: non-interference in Russia’s domestic affairs, in return for access by American corporations to “choice” Russian projects. Oil interests, such as ExxonMobil’s possible return to Sakhalin. Gas projects, with the likelihood that Nord Stream could pass into American hands to pump Azeri gas into Europe via Ukraine. In Ukraine itself, Americans are eyeing nuclear power and long-term rights to natural resources. Rosneft may open rare-earth projects to US partners; Magadan could follow with promising mining ventures. Observers noted that the delegations never sat down for full-fledged talks.

Contours of an understanding were nonetheless visible — frameworks that may evolve, adjust and expand.

Trump now faces his own tasks:
— To dampen European anger at Putin by effectively exchanging security guarantees for EU loyalty to Washington — a goal Trump is well placed to achieve.
— To divest himself of obligations towards Ukraine, allowing Kyiv and Moscow to discuss a peace format while the front bleeds manpower, a resource especially scarce for the Ukrainians.

BY ВРЕМЯ ПУТИНА