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With the benefit of hindsight, one can conclude that "buy election and sell inauguration" worked well this time.

Now that the market is 10% off the all-time high, set less than a month ago, the speed with which said correction took place is worth noting. Over the past 100 years, there were 25-30 instances of 10%+ corrections. Some, but not all, preceded recessions. A 10%+ market correction occurring within just 3 weeks from the market peak would be approximately in the 75-80th percentile in terms of speed, based on historical data. This means a 3-week 10%+ correction is notably faster than average but not extremely rare.

What is different now, as compared to the 2022 slide, is that portfolio diversification did help. Yields went lower. Certain European and Chinese stocks went up. Gold too. Consumer staples and utilities held ground. Overconcentrated portfolios in the tech space got hammered. Looks like cross-sector rotation is behind us.

The biggest risk going forward remains a policy error. Who's buying the dip now?
Happy trading!

#finance
March 2025



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With the benefit of hindsight, one can conclude that "buy election and sell inauguration" worked well this time.

Now that the market is 10% off the all-time high, set less than a month ago, the speed with which said correction took place is worth noting. Over the past 100 years, there were 25-30 instances of 10%+ corrections. Some, but not all, preceded recessions. A 10%+ market correction occurring within just 3 weeks from the market peak would be approximately in the 75-80th percentile in terms of speed, based on historical data. This means a 3-week 10%+ correction is notably faster than average but not extremely rare.

What is different now, as compared to the 2022 slide, is that portfolio diversification did help. Yields went lower. Certain European and Chinese stocks went up. Gold too. Consumer staples and utilities held ground. Overconcentrated portfolios in the tech space got hammered. Looks like cross-sector rotation is behind us.

The biggest risk going forward remains a policy error. Who's buying the dip now?
Happy trading!

#finance
March 2025

BY Random Thoughts


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But because group chats and the channel features are not end-to-end encrypted, Galperin said user privacy is potentially under threat. For tech stocks, “the main thing is yields,” Essaye said. He floated the idea of restricting the use of Telegram in Ukraine and Russia, a suggestion that was met with fierce opposition from users. Shortly after, Durov backed off the idea. On February 27th, Durov posted that Channels were becoming a source of unverified information and that the company lacks the ability to check on their veracity. He urged users to be mistrustful of the things shared on Channels, and initially threatened to block the feature in the countries involved for the length of the war, saying that he didn’t want Telegram to be used to aggravate conflict or incite ethnic hatred. He did, however, walk back this plan when it became clear that they had also become a vital communications tool for Ukrainian officials and citizens to help coordinate their resistance and evacuations. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had carried out a similar exercise in 2017 in a matter related to circulation of messages through WhatsApp.
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