CSW - Slack Channel

IV. The Opportunity of Ruin

This is not merely destruction. It is creative devastation. What dies in the shale fields births something new elsewhere—new alignments, new currencies, new centres of gravity. The Saudis, by finishing the job they started in 2014, do not simply win a price war. They redefine the geography of power. No longer a vassal of Washington, no longer a pawn in the Atlantic order, Riyadh steps into the role of swing state between civilisations.

Beijing watches and smiles, understanding that a world where energy flows east and debt flows west is a world it can command. And the Saudis understand, perhaps for the first time, that friendship with America is not the path to sovereignty—it is the leash. If they cut it now, and do so cleanly, they gain not just barrels, but independence. Not just revenue, but reign.

And they’ll do it while laughing. While hosting. While smiling in photographs next to men whose throats they’ve already slit.

The Americans will never see it coming—not until the lights flicker, and the pumps run dry, and someone asks, “When did we lose control?” And the answer, of course, will be simple:

You lost it the moment you mistook a handshake for an alliance.

What Would I Know?

What would I know about oil markets? About geopolitics? About energy security, economic warfare, supply chains, and the precision art of slowly suffocating a superpower through a $6 drop in the price of crude?

I mean, sure—I’ve only got a doctorate in economics, a master’s with a perfect 4.0 GPA in geography (the kind that includes resource distribution and geopolitical chokepoints, not colouring maps), a master’s in political science (you know, the study of power structures and strategic alignments), three separate master’s degrees in history (because one timeline isn’t enough to understand recurring stupidity), postgraduate qualifications in fuel sciences and organic chemistry (yes, that includes how oil actually works at the molecular level), and quantitative economics and finance at the postgraduate level (where we model collapses, not guess them).

But yes, go on. Tell me I wouldn't have a clue.

Tell me—while you quote from your favourite newsletter written by a journalism grad who's never seen a futures curve—that I’m paranoid. Tell me that $52 oil is just noise. That the Saudis wouldn’t possibly coordinate indirectly with China while the U.S. is preoccupied. That geopolitics isn’t that smart. That this isn’t about power but supply and demand—as if barrels move without context.

Tell me that a country built on decades of balance sheet manipulation and shale euphoria is robust. That the industry whose breakeven sits at $55 can somehow flourish on $48 and not turn Texas into a foreclosure festival. That the Saudis aren't watching American rig counts collapse with a quiet smile and a growing ledger of eastward oil contracts. Tell me the CCP isn’t licking its lips.

Tell me the Kingdom isn’t quietly gutting the entire myth of U.S. energy independence while nodding politely and hosting investment forums for Silicon Valley execs who think a TikTok ban is strategic policy.

Tell me I don’t get it.

You’re right, after all. What would I know?

I just spent my life studying it.

2/2
CSW
May 3, 2025
https://metanet-icu.slack.com/archives/C5131HKFX/p1746249966705099?thread_ts=1746249966.705099&cid=C5131HKFX

www.group-telegram.com/it/CSW_Slack.com/6803

191 viewsRamon Quesada.🇻🇪, edited  May 3 at 07:04

IV. The Opportunity of Ruin

This is not merely destruction. It is creative devastation. What dies in the shale fields births something new elsewhere—new alignments, new currencies, new centres of gravity. The Saudis, by finishing the job they started in 2014, do not simply win a price war. They redefine the geography of power. No longer a vassal of Washington, no longer a pawn in the Atlantic order, Riyadh steps into the role of swing state between civilisations.

Beijing watches and smiles, understanding that a world where energy flows east and debt flows west is a world it can command. And the Saudis understand, perhaps for the first time, that friendship with America is not the path to sovereignty—it is the leash. If they cut it now, and do so cleanly, they gain not just barrels, but independence. Not just revenue, but reign.

And they’ll do it while laughing. While hosting. While smiling in photographs next to men whose throats they’ve already slit.

The Americans will never see it coming—not until the lights flicker, and the pumps run dry, and someone asks, “When did we lose control?” And the answer, of course, will be simple:

You lost it the moment you mistook a handshake for an alliance.

What Would I Know?

What would I know about oil markets? About geopolitics? About energy security, economic warfare, supply chains, and the precision art of slowly suffocating a superpower through a $6 drop in the price of crude?

I mean, sure—I’ve only got a doctorate in economics, a master’s with a perfect 4.0 GPA in geography (the kind that includes resource distribution and geopolitical chokepoints, not colouring maps), a master’s in political science (you know, the study of power structures and strategic alignments), three separate master’s degrees in history (because one timeline isn’t enough to understand recurring stupidity), postgraduate qualifications in fuel sciences and organic chemistry (yes, that includes how oil actually works at the molecular level), and quantitative economics and finance at the postgraduate level (where we model collapses, not guess them).

But yes, go on. Tell me I wouldn't have a clue.

Tell me—while you quote from your favourite newsletter written by a journalism grad who's never seen a futures curve—that I’m paranoid. Tell me that $52 oil is just noise. That the Saudis wouldn’t possibly coordinate indirectly with China while the U.S. is preoccupied. That geopolitics isn’t that smart. That this isn’t about power but supply and demand—as if barrels move without context.

Tell me that a country built on decades of balance sheet manipulation and shale euphoria is robust. That the industry whose breakeven sits at $55 can somehow flourish on $48 and not turn Texas into a foreclosure festival. That the Saudis aren't watching American rig counts collapse with a quiet smile and a growing ledger of eastward oil contracts. Tell me the CCP isn’t licking its lips.

Tell me the Kingdom isn’t quietly gutting the entire myth of U.S. energy independence while nodding politely and hosting investment forums for Silicon Valley execs who think a TikTok ban is strategic policy.

Tell me I don’t get it.

You’re right, after all. What would I know?

I just spent my life studying it.

2/2
CSW
May 3, 2025
https://metanet-icu.slack.com/archives/C5131HKFX/p1746249966705099?thread_ts=1746249966.705099&cid=C5131HKFX

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