With the benefit of hindsight, one can conclude that "buy election and sell inauguration" worked well this time.
Now that the market is 10% off the all-time high, set less than a month ago, the speed with which said correction took place is worth noting. Over the past 100 years, there were 25-30 instances of 10%+ corrections. Some, but not all, preceded recessions. A 10%+ market correction occurring within just 3 weeks from the market peak would be approximately in the 75-80th percentile in terms of speed, based on historical data. This means a 3-week 10%+ correction is notably faster than average but not extremely rare.
What is different now, as compared to the 2022 slide, is that portfolio diversification did help. Yields went lower. Certain European and Chinese stocks went up. Gold too. Consumer staples and utilities held ground. Overconcentrated portfolios in the tech space got hammered. Looks like cross-sector rotation is behind us.
The biggest risk going forward remains a policy error. Who's buying the dip now? Happy trading!
With the benefit of hindsight, one can conclude that "buy election and sell inauguration" worked well this time.
Now that the market is 10% off the all-time high, set less than a month ago, the speed with which said correction took place is worth noting. Over the past 100 years, there were 25-30 instances of 10%+ corrections. Some, but not all, preceded recessions. A 10%+ market correction occurring within just 3 weeks from the market peak would be approximately in the 75-80th percentile in terms of speed, based on historical data. This means a 3-week 10%+ correction is notably faster than average but not extremely rare.
What is different now, as compared to the 2022 slide, is that portfolio diversification did help. Yields went lower. Certain European and Chinese stocks went up. Gold too. Consumer staples and utilities held ground. Overconcentrated portfolios in the tech space got hammered. Looks like cross-sector rotation is behind us.
The biggest risk going forward remains a policy error. Who's buying the dip now? Happy trading!
#finance March 2025
BY Random Thoughts
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And while money initially moved into stocks in the morning, capital moved out of safe-haven assets. The price of the 10-year Treasury note fell Friday, sending its yield up to 2% from a March closing low of 1.73%. Overall, extreme levels of fear in the market seems to have morphed into something more resembling concern. For example, the Cboe Volatility Index fell from its 2022 peak of 36, which it hit Monday, to around 30 on Friday, a sign of easing tensions. Meanwhile, while the price of WTI crude oil slipped from Sunday’s multiyear high $130 of barrel to $109 a pop. Markets have been expecting heavy restrictions on Russian oil, some of which the U.S. has already imposed, and that would reduce the global supply and bring about even more burdensome inflation. "We as Ukrainians believe that the truth is on our side, whether it's truth that you're proclaiming about the war and everything else, why would you want to hide it?," he said. "And that set off kind of a battle royale for control of the platform that Durov eventually lost," said Nathalie Maréchal of the Washington advocacy group Ranking Digital Rights. Pavel Durov, Telegram's CEO, is known as "the Russian Mark Zuckerberg," for co-founding VKontakte, which is Russian for "in touch," a Facebook imitator that became the country's most popular social networking site.
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