Random Thoughts

Trade wars always hurt exporters more.

Back in 1930 the Smoot–Hawley Tariff act was signed into law. During 1920s, due to improvements in production, agricultural output in the U.S. soared and prices went down. Farmers were experiencing lower standards of living, due to a widening gap between prices for their produce and goods they were buying. During 1928 Republicans maintained majorities in the House and in the Senate. Hoover was a Republican too. The same trifecta we're having today. Both chambers passed the legislation, lobbied by farm interests, with wide margins.

The problem was that the U.S. was actually running a trade surplus at the time. It was an exporter of manufacturing goods and agriculture to the rest of the world, just like China is today. Without abilities to sell to US market, other countries were not receiving cash to pay for their imports, mostly from the U.S. Many countries retaliated in kind. Global trade collapsed. Manufacturing sector, which was already far more important, took a plunge. This was one of the major causes for the Great Depression.

Keep that in mind when you hear proposals to raise tariffs on goods from Mexico. US actually has a sizeable trade surplus with its southern neighbor.
https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/12/mexicoimports.png

#economics #politics

December 2024

www.group-telegram.com/sg/random_from_sherlock.com/482

119 viewsDec 2, 2024 at 22:56

Trade wars always hurt exporters more.

Back in 1930 the Smoot–Hawley Tariff act was signed into law. During 1920s, due to improvements in production, agricultural output in the U.S. soared and prices went down. Farmers were experiencing lower standards of living, due to a widening gap between prices for their produce and goods they were buying. During 1928 Republicans maintained majorities in the House and in the Senate. Hoover was a Republican too. The same trifecta we're having today. Both chambers passed the legislation, lobbied by farm interests, with wide margins.

The problem was that the U.S. was actually running a trade surplus at the time. It was an exporter of manufacturing goods and agriculture to the rest of the world, just like China is today. Without abilities to sell to US market, other countries were not receiving cash to pay for their imports, mostly from the U.S. Many countries retaliated in kind. Global trade collapsed. Manufacturing sector, which was already far more important, took a plunge. This was one of the major causes for the Great Depression.

Keep that in mind when you hear proposals to raise tariffs on goods from Mexico. US actually has a sizeable trade surplus with its southern neighbor.
https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/12/mexicoimports.png

#economics #politics

December 2024

BY Random Thoughts