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The PHIA Probability
Yardstick
Most intelligence judgements have some degree of uncertainty associated with them. The
intelligence assessment community use terms such as ‘unlikely’ or ‘probable’ to convey this. These
terms are used instead of numerical probabilities e.g. 55% to avoid interpretation of judgements
as being overly precise, as most intelligence judgements are not based on quantitative data.
A Yardstick establishes what these terms approximately correspond to in numerical probability.
This ensures that readers understand a judgement as the analyst intends. The rigourous use
of a Yardstick also ensures that analysts themselves make clear judgements and avoid the
inappropriate use of terms that imply a judgement without being clear what it is (e.g. ‘if x were to
occur, then y might happen’).
The Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment Probability Yardstick splits the probability scale
into seven ranges. Terms are assigned to each probability range.
source
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316 viewsedited  Jan 23, 2021 at 11:20

The PHIA Probability
Yardstick
Most intelligence judgements have some degree of uncertainty associated with them. The
intelligence assessment community use terms such as ‘unlikely’ or ‘probable’ to convey this. These
terms are used instead of numerical probabilities e.g. 55% to avoid interpretation of judgements
as being overly precise, as most intelligence judgements are not based on quantitative data.
A Yardstick establishes what these terms approximately correspond to in numerical probability.
This ensures that readers understand a judgement as the analyst intends. The rigourous use
of a Yardstick also ensures that analysts themselves make clear judgements and avoid the
inappropriate use of terms that imply a judgement without being clear what it is (e.g. ‘if x were to
occur, then y might happen’).
The Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment Probability Yardstick splits the probability scale
into seven ranges. Terms are assigned to each probability range.
source
مرتبط با:
www.group-telegram.com/nouritazeh/5038

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