Demographics Now and Then

Seems like persistent fall in Egyptian TFR will likely take it below replacement in 2028,below 1.8 by 2030,& below 1.5 before 2035. There will likely be a huge difference in fertility between conservative religious families (who may keep TFR ⬆️ 2.0) & secular (as low as 0.75).

The conservative religious vs liberal secular TFR divergence is everywhere. Secular Egyptians likely see country as overpopulated & (although there are many technological solutions & it is possible to build many more desalinization plants) follow trends towards less/no children.

Both religious and non religious Egyptian TFR will fall a lot. But secular Egyptians have a much lower TFR floor. Most religious Egyptians will likely see TFR plummet from ~3.5+ to ~2.0 while secular TFR will halve or more from perhaps ~1.5-2.0 to 0.75.

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2.5K viewsOct 6 at 12:07

Seems like persistent fall in Egyptian TFR will likely take it below replacement in 2028,below 1.8 by 2030,& below 1.5 before 2035. There will likely be a huge difference in fertility between conservative religious families (who may keep TFR ⬆️ 2.0) & secular (as low as 0.75).

The conservative religious vs liberal secular TFR divergence is everywhere. Secular Egyptians likely see country as overpopulated & (although there are many technological solutions & it is possible to build many more desalinization plants) follow trends towards less/no children.

Both religious and non religious Egyptian TFR will fall a lot. But secular Egyptians have a much lower TFR floor. Most religious Egyptians will likely see TFR plummet from ~3.5+ to ~2.0 while secular TFR will halve or more from perhaps ~1.5-2.0 to 0.75.

BY Demographics Now and Then